The topography of the divorce plateau: Levels and trends in union stability in the United States after 1980. Additional analyses (not shown) find a strong and consistent positive relationship between personal income and the probability of being currently married for men, regardless of race, across the entire period. Sassler S, Goldscheider F. Revisiting Jane Austen's Theory of Marriage Timing: Changes in Union Formation Among American Men in the Late 20th Century. Women's education results in better family planning Niger is not only one of the world's poorest countries, but it boasts one of the world's highest birth rates. If this is the case, then we would expect the relationship between education and marriage for women in the U.S. to change over time as women's roles became more similar to men's. Not . Governments, educators and communities must address issues such as gender stereotypes that reinforce women's lower status, poor school quality, and early marriage and childbearing, which often cut short women's education. Some studies find that greater income and employment increase the likelihood of divorce for women23; while others find that greater education lowers the risk of divorce.24 Though Ono suggests that the effect of status varies by historical and cultural context.25 To date, no other study has looked at the relationship between education and all marital statuses simultaneously. Alternative specifications of the models, treating cohabiting couples as currently married in 2000 (data not shown), do not alter the findings reported above.56 Thus, the changing relationship between education and marriage for women does not appear to be a result of increases in cohabitation. Our understanding of the complex relationship between education and marriage would be advanced by a dynamic model of heterogeneity in the effects of education on family formation, with time-varying treatments that incorporate educational transitions from high school graduation to college completion. But for the college groups, there appeared to be greater educational homogamy with increases in the propensity for college. In 1940, almost 60 percent of the least educated black women were currently married. These maps visualize the percent of women holding college degrees by birth state for each year, 1940-2000. The .gov means its official. The progression of the maps shows the overall increase in women holding college degrees in the United States for the time period. The percent of women in the service industry is especially higher for Black women than women in other race categories, specifically in the years 1960 and 1970. the education of girls and women can lead to a wide range of benefits from improved maternal health, reduced infant mortality and fertility rates to increased prevention against hiv and aids. Second, the transition in the relationship between education and the predicted probability of being currently married occurred earlier for black women. Oppenheimer VK. Figure 12shows the percent of women in different occupation categories by race for the years 1940-2000 in the United States. In 1950 and all subsequent years, the additional category of separated was added and single was renamed never married. The increased prevalence of divorce was one factor in eliminating the traditional, societal idea that men can be depended on to provide lifelong financial support, driving women to seek their own career paths and steady sources of income. J Fam Hist. College graduates are on average more likely to get married and stay married than others, and they are more likely to have and raise their children in marriage (Ellwood & Jencks, 2004; Goldstein & Kenney, 2001; Martin, 2006; Raley & Bumpass, 2003). Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Demographic constraints on the availability of normatively appropriate (e.g., higher-status) potential spouses for high-status women likely play an additional role in reducing marriage rates.9 In short, specialization and exchange theory suggests a gendered relationship between economic status and marriage, often called the independence hypothesis. Greater economic status increases the marriage chances of men, but decreases the marriage chances of women. Heterogeneous Effects of College Attendance on Marriage Timing (N = 31,553 person-years). already built in. Education, occupation, and earnings. In contrast, those who might benefit most (in financial terms) from marriage are the least likely to be married. Figure 1 presents the predicted probability of being currently married by education level for each year for white women, holding age, nativity, school enrollment, region, metropolitan status, farm residence, housing tenure, and ethnicity constant at the actual individual population values for each year. The race categories are Hispanic, White, Black, Native American, Asian, and Other. The Level 1 coefficients were similarly patterned for men and women, increasing with propensity score strata from negative in stratum 1 to positive in stratum 5. From here, we investigated whether these null average effects conceal systematic variation in the effect of college by the probability that one attends college. Department of Policy Analysis and Management, Cornell University, 254 Martha Van Rensselaer Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-4401, Department of Sociology, University of CaliforniaLos Angeles, 264 Haines Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1551. Figure 10shows the percent of divorced women and Figure 11shows the percent of women holding college degrees in the United States from 1940-2000. The relationship between child marriage and educational attainment for girls is also strong. Thus, the relationship between education and marriage was positive by 1970 and remained so through 2000. Bloom DE, Bennett NG. White women's somewhat later mass entry into the labor force may explain some of the differential timing of changes in marriage. The legal age of women at first marriage is 18 years in Bangladesh, while the parliament of government has approved a new law called 'Child Marriage Restraint Act 2017', which allows girls under 18 to marry through parental consent and with permission from the courts. Where: Computationally, this yields a slightly different set of predicted probabilities than applying the coefficients to the mean values on each variable, but has the benefit of taking into account the actual distribution of the population on all other characteristics in the model for each year. Researchers at the National Center for Health Statistics estimate that 78% of college-educated women who married for the first time between 2006 and 2010 could expect their marriages to last at least 20 years. She argues, the belief to be more involved in family possibly becomes overwhelming for Hispanic women, contributing to lower percentages of Hispanic women earning college degrees compared to other race groups (Gilmore, 9). We expanded this line of inquiry to investigate how the effects of college play out in the marriage market. Two mechanisms drive the positive effect of education: first, education does not cause an increase in the mean age at first marriage; second, among ever-married women, education increases their demand for children. option. Oppenheimer, The Continuing Importance of Men's Economic Position; Fitch and Ruggles, Historical Trends in Marriage Formation., Goldstein and Kenney, Marriage Delayed or Marriage Foregone?; Bennett, Bloom, and Craig, The Divergence of Black and White Marriage Patterns.. An extra year of education does not change women's decision to marry and leads to a brief delay of 0.12 years in their marriage age on average, which is much smaller than the delay among men. All rights reserved. The site is secure. Armstrong EA, Hamilton L, Sweeney B. This study will determine the affect of a woman's level of education (EDUCATION) on a woman's median age at first marriage (AGE_MARRIAGE) while holding constant the affects of a women's living situation (RESIDENCE), men's median age at marriage (M_AGE), and women's median income (INCOME). Read your article online and download the PDF from your email or your account. Relying on data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 3208), we use a propensity score approach to group men and women into social strata and multilevel event history models to test differences in the effects of college attendance across strata. Womens participation in higher education has been and continues to be influenced by many factors, including race, social norms, and marriage status. In a nutshell, data show that the higher the level of a woman's educational attainment, the fewer children she is likely to bear. The NLSY79 have been used for studying heterogeneous effects of education (e.g., Brand, 2010; Brand & Davis, 2011; Brand & Xie, 2010) and the relationship between education and marriage (e.g., Sweeney, 2002; Oppenheimer et al., 1997). In the highest stratum, virtually all men and women, irrespective of college attendance, were estimated to marry. The frequency distributions for the college and noncollege men and women ran in opposite directions within strata: for the college-educated, the frequency count increased with the propensity score, whereas for the noncollege-educated, the count decreased. Men and women assess potential mates not just on earning potential, but on shared values, beliefs, and lifestyles, which are shaped both by school and family environments (e.g., see Kalmijn, 1998, for a review). In 1994, the country did away with school fees . Conceptually, this strategy is similar to examining an interaction between the effects of college and earlier advantages that select men and women into college. Reducing bias in observational studies using subclassification on the propensity score. With few exceptions, these differences were statistically significant at the p < .05 level. Women's employment more than doubled over the period, increasing from 32 percent in 1940 to 66 percent in 2000 for all women and from 16 percent to 65 percent for married women (not shown). The data for all figures are from the census data available on IPUMS, the Integrated Public-Use Microdata Series. These declines were accompanied by small increases in marriage, and staying married or remarrying, among highly educated white women and smaller decreases among highly educated black women relative to other black women. The first idea draws on the affordability model of marriage, which has emerged as a dominant account of the overall link between education and marriage. about her children's well-being.9 Education Holds the Key There is evidence that education enhances women's economic and social self-reliance, so that educated women are less likely to want large numbers of children, or sons, to provide them economic support in old age or to legitimize their positions in their husband's families. In the 1950s and 1960s, college and university women themselves had limited career ambitions, reflecting the climate of unexpectation in the country (Jones, 262). However, some of the increase in nonmarital childbearing and single parenthood has been offset by increases in cohabitation, particularly among those of lower socioeconomic status.55 If the less educated are increasingly more likely to cohabit than to marry over the period, then this might explain the changing relationship between education and marriage over the period. While there are limitations to single imputation (i.e., artificially low standard errors), the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (in Level 2) is complicated by multiple imputation. But, not anymore: in 2008, marriage rates amongst college-educated 30-year-olds surpassed those without a degree for the first time. Brand JE, Xie Y. In part because of these null findings, and in part because there is scant empirical or theoretical groundwork for understanding variation in education effects on union formation, we focus here on marriage. Note. Bethesda, MD 20894, Web Policies By this definition, 31% of our overall sample attended college, and of these, about three quarters were attending 4-year colleges and just over 70% ultimately completed college (both more common among higher strata men and women). Furthermore, those contextual variables that are available, such as female labor force participation and female wage ratios can only be matched to IPUMS data at the state level. Mens economic prospects have remained more predictive of marriage (Carlson et al. Odds ratios in the highest stratum suggested a 31% and 8% increase in marriage among college-going men and women, respectively (although these were not statistically significant differences). First, as the regression coefficients in the first set of columns in Table 2 show, greater education decreased the likelihood of being currently versus never married for white women in 1940. First, by 2000, greater education no longer decreased the likelihood of being currently versus never married. Two Decades of Family Change: The Shifting Economic Foundations of Marriage. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. Between 1940 and 2000, the percentage of all women age eighteen to thirty-nine that were currently married declined, from 62 percent in 1940 to 49 percent in 2000. Models are analyzed separately for black and white women in each census year. We generated propensity scores based on probit regression models of the following form (Rosenbaum & Rubin, 1983, 1984): where Pi is the propensity score for the ith individual; di indicates whether individual i attended college; and X represents a vector of covariates observed prior to college. While recent studies have shown that blacks are less likely to be married than whites, this is a new pattern, emerging after 1940.26 Prior to 1940, blacks had higher marriage rates and earlier ages at first marriage than whites. Becker's8 New Home Economics outlines how gendered role specialization and exchange shape marriage in a rational choice framework. Rather, both the retreat from marriage and the transformation in the relationship between education and marital status for women were largely driven by declines in marriage among the most disadvantaged women at the same time that women's economic status increased overall. Sweeney20 finds a positive relationship between education and first-marriage rates for two baby boom cohorts of men and women. Cleland and Jejeebhoy (10) show that in almost every country in South Asia, women with education get married "roughly two to five years later than uneducated women" (p.87). This reflects the work of Stacey Jones, who argues that as social norms tended toward marrying later or not marrying at all, women sought education more and more as a route to reliable income and self-sufficiency. Second, higher-status women themselves derive less benefit from marriage since they have the financial freedom to opt out of marriage. Between 1970 and 2000, the predicted probability of being currently married declined dramatically for all black women to well below 1940 levels. Census years represent the historical context in which young adults made decisions about marriage. As a result, child marriage reduces the likelihood that girls will complete their secondary education. At the other end of the distribution, those with less than a high school diploma were more likely than those with one to be currently ( = .37 for grade school and = .53 for some high school) or previously ( = .37 for grade school and = .44 for some high school) versus never married. When we restricted our analysis to 4-year college-goers, the positive trend in college effects across social strata was not statistically significant in our multilevel event history models (although it was significant in models predicting chances of ever marrying). To test the statistical significance of the trend in homogamy across strata, we estimated a logistic regression of marrying a same-education spouse on the interaction between college attendance and propensity score strata (results available upon request). These sample restrictions were set to ensure that all variables used to predict college (particularly ability) were measured before college and to compare college-goers to those who completed at least a high school education. The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, The Underclass, and Public Policy. Barber J, Murphy S, Axinn W, Maples J. Discrete-time multilevel hazard analysis. The first, based on the affordability model, emphasizes the importance of financial resources for marriage and suggests that college should have the greatest positive effects where the financial gains are greatest, that is, among the least advantaged men and women. Data for 1940, 1950, 1990, and 2000 are weighted; the other three years are self-weighting. Furthermore, the large sample sizes allow the inclusion of controls for characteristics that are relatively rare in one census, but common in another (e.g., farm residence, grade school education). For both men and women, we found a statistically significant increase in the effect of college attendance on marriage as the level of social advantage increased. Finally, we generated model-based estimates to examine age patterns and proportions marrying by age 46. Partner Choice and the Differential Retreat from Marriage. In 1940 and 1950, the sampling procedures used by the Census Bureau collected education and income data for sample line individuals only, resulting in a smaller analytic sample for these two census years. Sweeney MM. Black women with less than a high school diploma were now less likely than high school graduates to be both currently or previously married versus never married. Question: From 1940-2000, how did womens involvement in higher education shift, and what influenced it? What factors influenced this trend from 1940 to 2000 and beyond? This remains an important avenue for further research. The similarity in results for men and women is notable, given historical differences in the marriage process by gender. By 1970, black women with a grade school education were no longer significantly more likely to be ever married (either previously or currently married) versus never married, and black women with some college education were no longer less likely than their high school graduate counterparts to be ever married. This analysis extends previous work on the changing relationship between economic status and marriage. Social norms opened the floodgates to women pursuing college degrees in the 1960s and 1970s. Baseline duration for the Level 1 hazard model is a quadratic function of age. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. Multiplying the age-specific conditional marriage probabilities (as in equation 5), we generated model-based estimates of proportions entering into a first marriage by age 46. Understanding social factors and inequalities in health: 20th century progress and 21st century prospects. Empirical research consistently finds a positive relationship between socioeconomic status and marriage for men at the individual level, both historically and today,12 regardless of whether economic status is measured as income, education, or employment. Oppenheimer V. A Theory of Marriage Timing. These plot the difference in the age-specific conditional probabilities for college attendees versus non-attendees within each propensity score stratum. Recent research has shown that college-educated men and women are more likely to marry, a legal status that carries with it goods such as social recognition and health insurance (e.g., Musick & Bumpass, in press). As a result, white women with college degrees were the most likely to be currently married in 2000, while those with a grade school education were the least likely to be currently married. Generating an ePub file may take a long time, please be patient. Predicted probabilities are calculated by applying the regression coefficients to the actual values for each independent variable for each woman in the sample, holding education constant at the counterfactual level of interest, and taking the mean across all records. We tested the statistical significance of differences in coefficients across models for men and women, and the gender difference in parental income was the only one to attain significance at the p < .05 level. The growing female advantage in college completion: The role of family background and academic achievement. For women, it implied an increase of .11 in the effect of college for every step up in strata. Using the EDUCD variable, anyone with 4 years of college or more is considered as having a degree, and anyone with less than 4 years of college is considered as not having a degree. Ruggles S, Sobek M, Alexander T, Fitch CA, Goeken R, Hall PK, King M, Ronnander C. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 4.0. band's earnings. First, 1940 serves as a prebaby boom reference period and represents a time of high gender specialization (women's education and labor force participation were fairly low) and fairly high marriage rates. This approach is similar to propensity score matching, although with propensity score matching, comparison by treatment status (e.g., college vs. noncollege) is first made on an individual basis and then averaged over a population. Between 1940 and 1970, the predicted probability of being currently married declined for women with only a grade school education (although the size of this group also declined dramatically). In Level 1, we estimated propensity stratum-specific effects using a discrete-time logistic regression model on person-years of age from 1946: where f indicates the conditional probability of first marriage for the ith observation at age t in propensity score stratum s; di indicates whether an individual attended college; and A represents age (modeled as a quadratic). Accessibility Only a handful of studies examine changes across periods or cohorts.18 Using census data for 1850 through 2000, Fitch19 finds that greater female economic opportunity is associated (at the bivariate level) with later ages at marriage across the entire period. Thus, using Chinese data, we evaluate the impacts of a plausibly exogenous increase in educational attainment on women's marriage decisions. Life-course factors, such as younger age and school enrollment, may inhibit marriage.43 Marriage and divorce rates differ by race and ethnicity,44 foreign-born status,45 region,46 farm and metropolitan residence,47 and home ownership.48. Hispanic men who were married for the first time between 2006 and 2010 have a 62 percent chance of their . Following family economics, we postulate that for women a longer education decreases marriage rates both during education (institution effect) and after the degree has been obtained (human. The research has been conducted through analyzing primary researches and . We used a propensity score approach to match men and women on a multidimensional measure of socioeconomic background and early achievement. The Transformation in the Meaning of Marriage. They also had higher average cognitive test scores and were more likely to have had college-preparatory classes, parental encouragement to go to college, and friends with high educational aspirations.
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