imf social unrest index

IMF Working Paper, 2021/263. Economic sectors Series: Working Paper No. 1 Authorized for distribution by Daria Zakharova . Prior to the pandemic, unrest rose around the world. This provides a consistent, monthly measure of social unrest for 130 countries from 1985 to the present. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Social unrest has since returned but generally remains below levels seen in 2019. IMF Working Paper, 2 Background: The Reported Social Unrest Index, Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports, Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest, A Vicious Cycle: How Pandemics Lead to Economic Despair and Social Unrest, An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning, Deus ex Machina? Fraction of countries with RSUI-identified events, 20162022, Citation: IMF Working Papers 2022, 084; 10.5089/9798400209253.001.A001. Finance & Development, March 2022: Editors Letter, Statement by Mr. Romero Tarazona on Colombia March 25, 2022, Office of Anticorruption and Integrity: 2021 Annual Report, Asian Economic Integration Report 2022: Advancing Digital Services Trade in Asia and the Pacific, Overcoming COVID-19 in Bhutan: Lessons from Coping with the Pandemic in a Tourism-Dependent Economy, Private Sector Operations in 2020: Report on Development Effectiveness, Responding to Affected People during the Pandemic: ADB Accountability Mechanism Annual Report 2020, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022: Mobilizing Taxes for Development, COVID-19 and Water in Asia and the Pacific: Guidance Note, Prevention, Containment, and Management of COVID-19 Cases in Indigenous Territories: Social Policies in Response to COVID-19, How Do We Address the COVID-19 Crisis? var d=document, g=d.createElement('script'), s=d.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; Third, an unrest event, which is captured by a large change in the unrest index, is associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in GDP six quarters after the event. IMF Working Paper, 2021/135. First, a wave of protest swept parts of Latin America in October and November, starting in Chile and then spreading more widely. Econometric analysis COVID-19 For a full discussion of the construction of the RSUI, as well as its advantages and disadvantages, the reader is referred to Barrett et al. Measuring social unrest using media reports. The macroeconomic relevance of social unrest. Some significant unrest events occurred in the second and third quarters of 2020, including in the United States, which saw large racial justice protests; Ethiopia, as inter-ethnic tensions became more pronounced; and large anti-government protests in Brazil, Lebanon and Belarus. serbia currency to pakistan; comsol heat transfer in solids tutorial. That is not to say that social unrest halted completely. "Elevated inequality with greater food insecurity with high energy and food prices create a potential for social unrest," Chalk told reporters.The region is going to face additional challenges in 2023 as economic growth is projected to slow and the situation is expected to be worse than it currently is amid runaway inflation, Chalk said.Earlier on Wednesday, the IMF said in its regional . In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba's gross domestic product shrunk 35%, imports and exports both fell over 80%, and many domestic industries shrank considerably. It shows that unrest was elevated during late 2019, coincident with widespread protests in Latin America. To address these shortcomings, a recent IMF staff paper uses an index based on press coverage of social unrest to create a Reported Social Unrest Index. Unrest then fell markedly during the early stages of the pandemic as voluntary and involuntary social distancing struck. but is one of a number of priorities to improve employment opportunities and social inclusion throughout Europe, taking into account national or regional socioeconomic circumstances. The United Nations work agency today warned of a long "labour market recession" and noted that social unrest related to the crisis had already been reported in at least 25 countries, including . mpo-sm22 - Free ebook download as PDF File (.pdf), Text File (.txt) or read book online for free. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. We test factors associated with these "structuralist" and "political" theories on a new panel dataset which includes 54 OECD and emerging market countries between 2002 and 2015. All rights reserved. . a working paper published by imf researchers luca antonio ricci, metodij hadzi-vaskov and samuel pienknagura, phd, recently explored the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, finding that. g.type='text/javascript'; g.async=true; g.defer=true; g.src=u+'matomo.js'; s.parentNode.insertBefore(g,s); Throughout, examples of unrest are presented as illustrative rather than comprehensive. The timing of the decline coincided very closely with the start of the pandemic, which saw an increase social distancing, both voluntary and mandatory (see Figure 3).2 That is not to say that social unrest completely halted. Economic growth As the Chart of the Week shows, this is close to its highest levels since the onset of the pandemic. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. social anxiety benefits quantity formula in excel european debt crisis summary This annex describes the construction of a new Reported Social Unrest Index (RSU). During late-2019, the activity was concentrated in two regions. . The link was not copied. Second, unrest rose also in the Middle East, although the cross-country correlation was not quite as tight as in Latin America. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov IMFBlog is a forum for the views of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and officials on pressing economic and policy issues of the day. Not for Redistribution. Samuel Pienknagura Pricing protest: The response of financial markets to social unrest. The fraction of countries experiencing large spikes in this index, which typically reflect major unrest events, rose to around 3 percent in February. Research and Middle East and Central Asia . (2020) we devised a method for systematically measuring unrest in a . Barrett, P., M. Bondar, S. Chen, M. Chivakul, and D. Igan (2021). Social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports, covering 130 . The findings are threefold. In the former, protests erupted in places where major social unrest is usually rare, often with anti-government or anti-lockdown motives, including in Canada, New Zealand, Austria, and the Netherlands. (function() { The IMF's Reported Social Unrest Index attempts to do so by counting media mentions of words associated with unrest across 130 countries. Second, unrest lowers confidence and raises uncertainty; however, its adverse effect on GDP can be mitigated by strong institutions and by a countrys policy space. A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning, How Do Member Countries Receive IMF Policy Advice: Results from a State-of-the-art Sentiment Index, The More the Merrier? ). Social assistance literature is dominated by economic and demographic accounts, which under-examine the possibility that governments extend social assistance to contain social unrest. var d=document, g=d.createElement('script'), s=d.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; Estimation techniques First, unrest has an adverse effect on economic activity, with GDP remaining on average 0.2 percentage points below the pre-shock baseline six quarters after a one-standard deviation increase in the unrest index. IMF Working Paper, 2021/135. . Using a new daily index of social unrest, we provide systematic evidence on the negative impact of social unrest on stock market performance. Economic recession The IMF's Reported Social Unrest Index attempts to do so by counting media mentions of words associated with unrest across 130 countries. Financial markets (2020) we showed that for a wide sample of case studies, large spikes in the index line up closely with key events in authoritative (often peer-reviewed) narrative accounts. Measuring social unrest consistently is difficult. Published On 28 Apr 202228 Apr 2022. Covid Economics. Most of these increases, equivalent to 36.7 per cent between both periods, took place in middle-income countries. Citation: IMF Working Papers 2021, 174; 10.5089/9781513586229.001.A001. The IMF's Reported Social Unrest Index attempts to do so by counting media mentions of words associated with unrest across 130 countries. Social unrest has since returned but generally remains below levels seen in 2019. _paq.push(['setSiteId', '17']); 4. behati prinsloo astrology A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data, Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures, The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest, Sub-Saharan Africa; Economic Activity; GDP; Machine Learning; Nowcasting; COVID-19, Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies. The fraction of countries experiencing large spikes in this . In a warning that the economic shock triggered by the pandemic could undermine public attitudes to the fairness of taxation and welfare systems and lead to social unrest, the Washington-based . And Barrett et al. ). PAPERS . Measuring social unrest consistently is difficult. In fact, the Santiago metro farethe raise of which acted as the immediate trigger of the October 2019 social unrestincreased by about 35 percentage points faster than CPI over the past twelve years, while the electricity tariff . It shows that unrest was elevated during late 2019, coincident with widespread protests in Latin America. Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Paper Series. From mid-2019 until the onset of the pandemic, social unrest rose, a continuation of a trend since 2016, peaking in late 2019 as a wave of protest swept through Latin America. Perhaps most prominent was a wave of protest which began in Chile and swept through parts of Latin America in October and November 2019. _paq.push(['setSiteId', '17']); index can be simply and precisely characterized, and that social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Most . Fiscal consolidation Unrest then fell markedly during the early stages of the pandemic as voluntary and involuntary social distancing struck. _paq.push(['setTrackerUrl', u+'matomo.php']); Credit: (Photo: Johnnyfrs/iStock by Getty Images). RSUI January 2020 January 2021, select countries, avg.=100. _paq.push(['trackPageView']); /* tracker methods like "setCustomDimension" should be called before "trackPageView" */ Health, Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate. var u="https://piwik.pentaho.aidcvt.com/"; Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. Environmental Conservation and Protection, Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China, Macao Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China, Selected Legal and Institutional Papers Series, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400209253.001. While it lifted its output growth forecast for 2022 in the. In Barrett et al. Free Download. International Monetary Fund. The IMFs Reported Social Unrest Index attempts to do so by counting media mentions of words associated with unrest across 130 countries. Mr. Philip Barrett Registered: Abstract This paper updates the Reported Social Unrest Index of Barrett et al (2020), reviewing recent developments in social unrest worldwide since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. _paq.push(['setTrackerUrl', u+'matomo.php']); Strategy, Policy and Review Department . Although sources of information on unrest are available, many are at low frequency or have inconsistent coverage. In Tunisia, Kais Saied has reportedly been wooing Gulf states to help him weather the storm of higher food prices, greater social unrest, biting IMF conditions, food shortages and an increasingly unruly statea state of affairs contrasted with Saied's promises of greater prosperity, better days and stability, in exchange for setting aside democratic institutions and amassing greater power . National accounts, Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org. The Reported Social Unrest Index attempts to proxy for major social unrest events by count-ing the number of articles which include terms related to social unrest in a variety of media var _paq = window._paq || []; A recent body of IMF work aims to understand the economic drivers and costs of such unrest. Prepared by Chris Redl and Sandile Hlatshwayo. The findings are threefold. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. 8,355. IMF research shows that this is consistent with experience during past pandemics. Social unrest has continued through the later stages of the pandemic, with events in both Advanced Economies and in Emerging and Developing Economies. Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, we find a positive cross-sectional relationship between social unrest and epidemics. Although the economic causes of civil disorder are complex, and unrest is exceptionally hard to predict, steep price increases for food and fuel have been associated with more frequent protests in the past. Hlatshwayo, S. and C. Redl (2022). Unrest then fell markedly during the early stages of the pandemic as voluntary and involuntary social distancing struck. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. (2021) and Hlatshwayo and Redl (2022) use the measure of events to show that real economic outcomes deteriorate following an unrest event. Luca A Ricci, Free Download. Social Unrest Data Reported Social Unrest Index (RSUI) Social unrest data comes from Barrett, Appendino, Nguyen and de Leon Miranda (2020). A. TEMPO.CO , Washington - New waves of social unrest could erupt in some countries if government measures to mitigate the coronavirus pandemic are seen as insufficient or unfairly favoring the wealthy, the IMF said in a new report on Wednesday, April 15. On 10 March 2011, the United States and many other nations recognised the council headed by Mahmoud Jibril as acting prime minister and as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people and withdrawing the recognition . November 2021 . This is not a lot. Your current browser may not support copying via this button. A key challenge for research on social unrest is identifying when events of unrest have occurred. See Barrett and Chen (2021) for evidence that social unrest in general tends to decline during epidemics, at least in the short term. In Barrett et al. The fraction of countries experiencing large spikes in this index, which typically reflect major unrest events, rose to around 3 percent in February. (2020) we devised a method for systematically measuring unrest in a consistent manner across a wide range of countries at a monthly frequency from the mid-1980s to June 2019, the Reported Social Unrest Index (RSUI). 2022 International Monetary Fund. Barrett, P., M. Appendino, K. Nguyen, and J. de Leon Miranda (2020). Results are not driven by countries with adverse growth trajectories prior to unrest events or by fiscal consolidations, and are robust to instrumenting via regional unrest. We devised a systematic way to code these spikes, terming them events. For a group of 118 countries (covered simultaneously by the ACLED and World Bank International Debt Statistics databases), the number of protests increased from 92,166 to 125,959 between the two-year periods of 2018-2019 and 2020-2021. ; The IMF Press Center is a password-protected site for working journalists. Fiscal policy They propose the reported social unrest index (RSUI), a monthly news-based index starting in January 1985 that quantifies the extent of social unrest for a large set of countries. azure fundamentals pdf 2022; hk science museum opening hours COVID-19 and Inequality in Asia: Risks of Social Unrest? We also showed that this measure is robust to specifics of the search criteria, sources used, and language of the sources. In 2021 The Transparency International Corruption Perceptions index ranked Ukraine at 122 out of 180 countries with a score of 32 out of 100. It shows that unrest was elevated during late 2019, coincident with widespread protests in Latin America. In the former group, protests have erupted in places where major social unrest is usually rare, often with anti-government or anti-lockdown motives, including in Canada, New Zealand, Austria, and the Netherlands (Figure 5a). It shows that unrest was elevated during late 2019, coincident with widespread protests in Latin America. First, unrest has an adverse effect on economic activity, with GDP remaining on average 0.2 percentage points below the pre-shock baseline six quarters after a one-standard deviation increase in the unrest index. var u="https://piwik.pentaho.aidcvt.com/"; IMF Working Paper . This is a timely and high-frequency indicator that seeks to consistently quantify social unrest in seven countries: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia, since 2005. _paq.push(["setDoNotTrack", true]); The IMF has just made a forecast as of 27 July that the Russian economy will only shrink 6% this year. This is a timely and high-frequency indicator that seeks to consistently quantify social unrest in seven countries: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia, since 2005. This paper updates that dataset through to February 2022. F&D, the flagship magazine of the International Monetary Fund, covers cutting-edge research and analysis of key economic, finance and development issues shaping the world. Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial, socioeconomic, development and political variables. This annex describes the construction of a new Reported Social Unrest Index (RSU). Measuring social unrest consistently is difficult. Due to differences in media coverage and perception across countries, events are our preferred way to compare trends in unrest internationally. We also show that our measure performs at least as well as the next best alternative (the Armed Conflict Location and Event Database). Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file. })(); Reported Social Unrest Index: March 2022 Update, Copy this link, or click below to email it to a friend. Forecasting social unrest. This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. (2021) use a daily version of the RSUI within event months to identify stock market responses to unrest events. Social unrest continued through the later stages of the pandemic, with events in both advanced and emerging and developing economies. ). . This paper updates the Reported Social Unrest Index of Barrett et al (2020), reviewing recent developments in social unrest worldwide since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Environmental Conservation and Protection, Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China, Macao Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China, Selected Legal and Institutional Papers Series, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. 1 Introduction In Barrett et al. Yet overall, social unrest remains low relative to pre-pandemic levels. China's export growth slowed to single digits in April, while imports were unchanged as tighter and wider Covid-19 curbs halted factory production, disrupted supply chains and triggered a collapse . This paper updates the Reported Social Unrest Index of Barrett et al (2020), reviewing recent developments in social unrest worldwide since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Summary: Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. At the start of the pandemic, unrest declined suddenly. There, unrest spiked in Algeria, Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon (Figure 2b), RSUI January 2019 January 2020, avg.=100. Your current browser may not support copying via this button. This drop is more pronounced for events that last longer and for events that happen in emerging markets . The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial, socioeconomic, development and political variables. Covid Economics. Recent News Seanergy Maritime Announces Proposed Spin-Off Measuring social unrest consistently is difficult. The IMF, based in Washington D.C., is an organization of 190 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation and financial stability around the world. In coming months, two important factors could lead to an increased risk of future unrest. Ukraine has a Global Corruption Barometer of 23%, which is the . In emerging markets and developing economies, the apparent motives for recent unrest have been more diverse, with examples including anti-government protests in Kazakhstan and Chad; a coup in Burkina Faso; regional protests in Tajikistan; and a constitutional crisis in Sudan. This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. As a result, the RSUI rose sharply in several countries in the region (Figure 2a). Measuring social unrest using media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. Consumption We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. First, as governments relax restrictions and public concerns about catching COVID in crowds diminish, pandemic-related disincentives for protest might abate. The fraction of countries experiencing large spikes in this index, which typically reflect major unrest events, rose to around 3 percent in February. Developments in social unrest broadly follow three periods. a working paper published by imf researchers luca antonio ricci, metodij hadzi-vaskov and samuel pienknagura, phd, recently explored the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, finding that. The fraction of countries experiencing large spikes in this index, which typically reflect major unrest events, rose to around 3 percent in February. ; Significant unrest events occurred through the Summer, including in: Brazil, driven by anti-government sentiment; the United States, where there were large protests for racial justice; Ethiopia, as inter-ethnic tensions became more pronounced; and large anti-government protests in Lebanon and Belarus (see Figure 4). IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the current situation meant that the European Central Bank needed to carefully balance its fight against inflation while remaining "mindful of the. IMF Working Paper, 2021/079. importance of ict in economic development pdf. And second, public frustration with rising food and fuel prices may increase. The Reported Social Unrest Index attempts to proxy for major social unrest events by counting the number of articles which include terms related to social unrest in a variety of media sources. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board. Hlatshwayo and Redl (2021) use machine learning techniques to predict the likelihood of unrest from a wide set of socio-economic variables, using RSUI-identified events as the outcome variable. We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. (function() { Human Capital Index. Hadzi-Vaskov, M., S. P. Loor, and L. A. Ricci (2021). This paper updates the Reported Social Unrest Index of Barrett et al (2020), reviewing recent developments in social unrest worldwide since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic. The fraction of countries experiencing large spikes in this index, which typically reflect major unrest events, rose to around 3 percent in February. Unrest declined sharply at the start of the pandemic amid an increase in social distancing, both voluntary and mandatory. And C. Redl ( 2022 ) assessment of social unrest, using a index! - International Monetary Fund < /a > Credit: ( Photo: Johnnyfrs/iStock by Getty Images ) use the Adobe... Images ) was rising around the same time in the this measure is robust to specifics of the,. Was rising around the world as the Chart of the search criteria, sources,. Unrest remains low relative to pre-pandemic levels K. Nguyen, and L. A. Ricci ( 2021 ) imf social unrest index,! 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